Thursday, June 20, 2013

Trade Question from 6/15 Perry Armia Weber

Hey Hank, my year just completed and I finished just out of the money again. I am in a 12 team non-cap keeper league. It is a multi-cat league(full scoring and roster below)*, we start 4 centers, 4 wingers, 5 dman and 2 goalies.  As you can see by my roster, I am solid everywhere but defense.  I have several decent ones, but lack a top end dman. I have been trying all year to get 1 top end Dman and not a single owner has shown willingness to move one of their high end dman.  Finally, one owner seemed open to discussing Shea Weber and further to my surprise sent me an offer of his Weber for my Corey Perry and Joel Armia. I do get my Dman I need, but Perry in some rankings is the top 20 fantasy player and is a pretty heavy price. I am really high on Armia. What do you think?  Thanks, Mitch

Mitch, at first glance this does cause pause as I am a Perry owner/lover.  But a key to every trade situation is to know your league scoring and roster set up.  The scoring(*in the interest of space, I am not posting his full scoring or roster) is weighted heavier to dman (2.5 bonus points per hockey point) and to centers(face offs won .10 pts.). So, under your scoring, Weber was an absolute stud the year before. To no one’s surprise with Suter gone Weber’s numbers took a step backward this past year. But even if this lesser production remains his norm, he is destined to be a top 6-10 dman in your scoring format for the next ½ dozen years or more. In regards to your roster setup I see that LW and RW are not separate positions. With both bunched together the winger pool is much larger per starter needed, than centers and dman. This allows better odds to get lucky at winger if looking to replace Perry, and as you have found out, very low odds to get lucky at landing a top end dman.  For example, 2 years ago Lupul and last year Clarkson/Kunitz were most likely waiver adds and were within respectable distance of Perry in any format.
Final Analysis: First, I too like Armia as a prospect and like his upside a lot, but there are way too many variables in his development to give his loss the kind of weight to flush this deal, oh and coincidentally, he is a winger. So it is down to the 2 studs to me. Neither decision is a bad decision, as both players are set up to be perennial top players at their position for the next several years. However, I think your fellow owners gave you the best trade advice on this one. “not a single owner has shown willingness to move one of their high end dman”   Based on your scoring and roster formats, and your team roster, I believe your team is more likely better served over the years to accept the trade and add Weber to your roster.  
Best of Luck Mitch

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